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Results of survey on impacts of COVID-19 | CFA Montréal members expect Canada to be in recession for less than a year

An in-house survey of CFA Montréal members to obtain their perspectives on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals, among other things, that 60 % of respondents believe the recession should last less than a year in Canada, and 57 % come to the same conclusion for the U.S. recession.

"The survey results confirm that the financial sector remains very active, with almost 80 % of our members teleworking full-time due to the pandemic. Even though they think it unlikely that Canada will experience deflation as Japan has already, nearly half of our members will still review their practices, whether in risk management, asset allocation or portfolio rebalancing," says Carl Robert, CFA, President of CFA Montreal.

According to CFA Montréal members, stocks in the information technology (46 %), healthcare (41 %), financial (35 %) and consumer staples (31 %) sectors will be the most attractive in the short term. However, assets in the real estate (35 %), bond market (33 %), private equity (30 %) and hedge fund (26 %) categories are likely to suffer the most negative effects of this crisis in the long term.

Click here to access the survey results.

Survey highlights1

  • 44 % of respondents expect the recession to last between 6 and 12 months, and 25 % think it will last between 12 and 18 months in Canada;
  • 39 % of respondents expect the recession to last between 6 and 12 months, and 29 % think it will last between 12 and 18 months in the US;
  • More than 78 % of respondents believe that the US stock market will not recover its current loss for another 12 to 24 months;
  • 65 % expect Asia to emerge more quickly from the global recession, followed by North America (34 %);
  • 72 % expect the best short-term opportunities to be in the stock markets, followed by bonds (27 %) and currencies (22 %);
  • 90 % do not anticipate the closure of stock exchanges during the crisis.

The survey was conducted online by CFA Montreal among its 2,900 members from April 2 to 13, 2020, and 306 of them responded. The survey's maximum margin of error is 5%, 19 times out of 20.

Read in the news

Finance & Investment - April 23, 2020: The recession would last less than a year

Conseiller.ca - April 23, 2020: A brief or lasting recession

Avantages.ca - April 23, 2020: COVID-19: can we avoid permanent damage to the economy?

TVA Nouvelles 12h of April 23, 2020 - 21'30" à 22'38"

98,5FM - Mario Langlois Live 9:29 p.m. - April 23, 2020

Le Devoir - April 24, 2020

1 Since participants could tick more than one answer to some questions, and figures are rounded, percentages may not add up to 100 in all cases.

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